Category Archives: Economy

Politicians And The Dumb Masses

One of President Obama’s campaign promises was not to raise taxes on middle-class Americans. So here’s my question: If there’s a corporate tax increase either in the form of “cap and trade” or income tax, does it turn out to be a middle-class tax increase? Most people would say no but let’s look at it.

There’s a whole subject area in economics known as tax incidence — namely, who bears the burden of a tax? The first thing that should be recognized is that the burden of a tax is not necessarily borne by the party upon whom it is levied. That is, for example, if a sales tax is levied on gasoline retailers, they don’t bear the full burden of the tax. Part of it is shifted to customers in the form of higher gasoline prices.

Suppose your local politician tells you, as a homeowner, “I’m not going to raise taxes on you! I’m going to raise taxes on your land.” You’d probably tell him that he’s an idiot because land does not pay taxes; only people pay taxes. That means a tax on your land is a tax on you. You say, “Williams, that’s pretty elementary, isn’t it?” Not quite.

What about the politician who tells us that he’s not going to raise taxes on the middle class; instead, he’s going to raise corporate income taxes as means to get rich corporations to pay their rightful share of government? If a tax is levied on a corporation, and if it is to survive, it will have one of three responses, or some combination thereof. One response is to raise the price of its product, so who bears the burden? Another response is to lower dividends; again, who bears the burden? Yet another response is to lay off workers. In each case, it is people, not some legal fiction called a corporation, who bear the burden of the tax.

Because corporations have these responses to the imposition of a tax, they are merely government tax collectors.

They collect money from people and send it to Washington. Therefore, you should tell that politician, who promises to tax corporations instead of you, that he’s an idiot because corporations, like land, do not pay taxes. Only people pay taxes.

Here’s another tax question, even though it doesn’t sound like it. Which workers receive higher pay: those on a road construction project moving dirt with shovels and wheelbarrows or those moving dirt atop a giant earthmover? If you said the worker atop the earthmover, go to the head of the class. But why? It’s not because he’s unionized or that construction contractors have a fondness for earthmover operators. It’s because the worker atop the earthmover is working with more capital, thereby making him more productive. Higher productivity means higher wages.

It’s not rocket science to conclude that whatever lowers the cost of capital formation, such as lowering the cost of investing in earthmovers, enables contractors to purchase more of them. Workers will have more capital to work with and as a result enjoy higher wages. Policies that raise the cost of capital formation such as capital gains taxes, low depreciation allowances and corporate taxes, thereby reduce capital formation, and serve neither the interests of workers, investors nor consumers. It does serve the interests of politicians who get more resources to be able to buy votes.

You might wonder how congressmen can get away with taxes and other measures that reduce our prosperity potential. Part of the answer is ignorance and the anti-business climate promoted in academia and the news media. The more important reason is that prosperity foregone is invisible. In other words, we can never tell how much richer we would have been without today’s level of congressional interference in our lives and therefore don’t fight it as much as we should.

The above was graciously lifted from a piece entitled Politicians Exploit Economic Ignorance by Walter E. Williams.

Walter E. Williams is a professor of economics at George Mason University. To find out more about Walter E. Williams and read features by other Creators Syndicate writers and cartoonists, visit the Creators Syndicate Web page at www.creators.com.

‘Shovel Ready,’ Obama’s ‘Read My Lips’

Couldn’t help but notice the comparison here. Bush 41 made his pledge not to raise taxes with his ‘read my lips’ statement at the 1988 Republican National Convention as he accepted the nomination. He made that case as part of his platform. Similarly, candidate Obama ran on jump starting the economy with ‘shovel ready’ projects. He made the same case in passing the $787 billion porkulus bill. But that’s where the similarity ends. For Obama, there was no time to read the bill. But the money was going to be spent on projects that could start within 90 days, he said.

Aside from Ted Kennedy’s funeral, what other shovel ready jobs were there? Today President Obama says there’s no such thing as ‘shovel ready.’

As for the media reaction. That remains to be seen. You will recall that they skewered Bush 41 after he raised taxes, relentlessly, day after day, front page, above the fold. (Isn’t that what Barack Obama wants to do today? Raise taxes?) All those who think the media will treat Obama the same way, please raise your hand. Be on the lookout for it. I hope I’m wrong but I don’t think you’ll see the same kind of reaction. Even though Obama’s deception put our country into debt for generations to come, I think the media will give him a pass. But come November 2, I doubt the voters will.

Khavari For Governor YouTube Video

This isn’t a flashy video produced in Hollywood. It’s not funded by the coffers of the DNC or the RNC. And it’s not funded by special interests. Unless by ‘special interests’ you mean you and me and individual citizens around the State of Florida who care as much about Florida as he does. Right, it’s not fancy or flashy. And, it doesn’t attack the character of his opponents nor does it call them evil or criminals. I already did that.

What it does do is show you how sincere candidate Farid Khavari (I) is on helping the State of Florida and its citizens. He details the reason you should vote for him. He doesn’t tell you why you should not vote for someone else. How refreshing!

Isn’t this the kind of person we’ve been looking for to be chief executive of our state? Farid Khavari is the only candidate with an actual plan for the State of Florida that will promote economic recovery and create private sector jobs while making it possible for people to stay in their homes.

Like him, I invite you to go to his website and check out his plan for yourself. Then on November 2, vote for the person you think can deliver for Florida instead of the candidate with the most TV and print exposure. I think you will find that to be Dr. Farid Khavari, Independent candidate for Governor of the State of Florida.

Link: Khavari For Governor

The FUD Factor Explained

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, trusted by the previous administration and the current one, especially after he endorsed the government bailouts of both, describes in this piece precisely what the FUD Factor is all about. Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt. It explains, as he details in this piece, why there exists a jobless recovery. If by ‘recovery’ you mean not a total collapse of the economy.

Fear undermines America’s recovery

By Alan Greenspan

Although rising moderately this year, US fixed capital investment has fallen far short of the level that history suggests should have occurred given the recent dramatic surge in corporate profitability. Combined with a collapse of long-term illiquid investments by households, they have frustrated economic recovery. These shortfalls, the result of widespread private-sector anxiety over America’s future, have defused much, if not most, of the impact of the administration’s fiscal stimulus. Moreover, the activism embodied in such programmes has itself stoked the degree of anxiety.

The instinctive reaction of businessmen and householders to uncertainty is to disengage from those activities that require confident predictions of how the future will unfold. For non-financial corporations (half of gross domestic product), the disengagement is best measured by the share of liquid cash flow allocated to illiquid long-term fixed asset investment. In the first half of 2010, that share fell to 79 per cent, its lowest reading in the 58 years for which data are available.

The corresponding surge in the proportion of liquid assets following the Lehman bankruptcy was the most rapid in postwar history, amounting to a rise of nearly $400bn. By mid-2010 total liquid assets had risen to $1,800bn, the highest share of total assets in nearly a half century. Without this unprecedented cash flow diversion, the rate of increase in capital expenditures of non-financial corporations would have been double the modest increase that emerged during the first half of this year.

In such an environment, the equity premium (the excess return that equity produces over the risk-free rate) has become exceptionally elevated. As estimated by JPMorgan, it is currently “at a 50-year high”.

American households have shifted their cash flows from illiquid real estate and consumer durables to paying down mortgages and consumer debt. Commercial banks are exhibiting a similar reduced tolerance towards risk on partially illiquid lending. A trillion dollars of excess reserves remains parked, largely immobile, at Federal Reserve banks yielding only 25 basis points with little evidence of banks seeking higher returns through increased lending.

It is this rapid rise in aversion to illiquid risk that explains a large part of the anaemic recovery in the US. Construction outlays, almost all long-term, are down 43 per cent in real terms since their peak in 2006 and reflect the heaviest price discounting of any major fixed asset class.

The pronounced lack of tolerance for illiquid investment risk is quite at variance with current relatively narrow corporate bond spreads. Since a portfolio of liquid privately issued 10-year bonds can be sold virtually at will, the portfolio is the equivalent of a very short-term asset that happens to exhibit high price and interest rate volatility. The difference between liquid and illiquid assets is the reason non-financial corporations, whose assets are largely illiquid, maintained net worth amounting to 45 per cent of assets at the end of 2006 (just prior to the onset of the crisis) compared with 10 per cent for commercial banks.

In these extraordinarily turbulent times, it is not surprising that important disagreements have emerged among policymakers and economists. Almost all agree activist government was necessary in the immediate aftermath of the Lehman bankruptcy. The US Treasury’s support of banks through the troubled asset relief programme (Tarp), and the Federal Reserve’s support of the commercial paper market and money market mutual funds, were critical in stemming the freefall.

But the value of fiscal stimulus has been the subject of wide debate. Fiscal stimulus – the amount of tax cutting and federal spending increases – from the programme’s inception in early 2009 was approximately $480bn. During the same period, the cumulative shortfall in private fixed capital investment measured against the long-term average shares of cash flow appears to have been about $325bn.

Most in the business community attribute the massive rise in their uncertainty to the collapse of economic activity, but its continuance since the recovery took hold is attributed to the widespread major restructuring of our financial system and the burgeoning federal deficit, which creates critical future tax uncertainty.

Only the deficit lends itself to being quantified. Fixed capital investment as a share of cash flow over the past four decades has been significantly (negatively) correlated with the ratio of the federal deficit to GDP, with the deficit ratio leading the fixed investment share by nine months.* This would imply that the federal deficit as a percentage of GDP since September 2008 (cyclically adjusted to remove the effect of a weaker economy), accounted for as much as a third of the $325bn shortfall in business capital investment since early 2009.

But an indeterminate amount of the remaining shortfall reflects both a direct and indirect hobbling of vital financial intermediation. It is going to take years to address the unprecedented complexity of final rulemaking required in the massive Dodd-Frank bill. The inevitable uncertainty engendered will inhibit financial innovation and intermediation, and render the rules that will govern a future financial marketplace disturbingly conjectural. This is bound to have a significant impact on economic growth. Business planners must now confront a much wider set of scenarios that could affect the profitability of contemplated long-term commitments. This wider set, of necessity, increases risk premiums on illiquid assets.

The critical question, of course, is how much of a contraction in deficits and a decrease in the frenetic pace of new regulations can assuage the sense of a frightening future, allowing the natural forces of economic recovery to take hold. That process, which I outlined in earlier Financial Times articles on March 23 and June 25 2009, would accelerate if fear-determined equity premiums were reduced and stock prices accordingly rose. That would spur capital investment (they are highly correlated) and wealth-driven consumer expenditures. Economic growth would finally bring an important fall in unemployment.

No Budget, Just More Fear, Uncertainty, And Doubt

For two years now, starting as a presidential candidate, President Barack Obama has said how creating jobs was going to be his top priority. How he will not rest until everyone who wants a job can get one. Judging by all the vacations he has had, are we supposed to think that he has fixed the economy? With unemployment and home foreclosures at an all time high, I don’t think so.

It’s been a busy week in Washington. While they were spinning their wheels on campaign finance issues and creating faux small business stimulation, they also saw fit to adjourn without passing a budget (so much for that debt commission‘s warning of fiscal cancer, and the now missing 2011 budget) and without dealing with the fact that taxes will be going up come January when the ten-year Bush tax cuts are scheduled to expire.

Congress did manage to extend the FUD Factor indefinitely though.

Businesses are not expanding, growing, or hiring; not because they can’t get loans, but because they are in a business climate right now of fear, uncertainty, and doubt over what the future will bring. And going on recess without dealing with the tax code shows the President’s commitment towards turning the economy around. It’s not there. All his promises were ‘words, just words.’ His priority has not wavered from the politics of remaining a majority party. He could care less about your wallet, your bank account, or that of future generations of Americans.

There is fear over what business or industry is next in line for government intervention or control. The uncertainty of the full effects of Obamacare on businesses, insurance carriers, and their employees. And the doubt that America will remain a free-enterprise, market-driven, capitalistic society for much longer. That’s why businesses are sitting on whatever capital they have. They are hoping that Obama makes a U-turn in his drive towards centralized government control. Or, that we get an adult in The White House who knows something about the Constitution, freedom, and liberty, the pillars of what has made the United States the greatest country in the world in just a couple hundred years.

All the major legislation Obama pushed through his Democrat-controlled Congress was based on the fear of the world coming to an end if it wasn’t passed immediately. It was always an emergency. There was no time to read what was in it.

Seems to me that spreading the FUD factor has become the modus operandi of this administration. And November 2nd can’t some soon enough.

Jobless ‘Recovery’, And Here’s Why

Top 10 Reasons for Obama’s Jobless Recovery

by Donald Lambro

1. Stimulus package didn’t stimulate: The economy is growing too slowly under President Obama’s failed government-spending stimulus because it lacks any incentives for increased private investment, risk taking, venture-capital formation and new business formation, the basis of new job creation. The mediocre economic-growth rate is not strong enough to drive down a nearly 10% unemployment rate. (It’s approaching 12% in Florida.)

2. Business uncertainty: Widespread uncertainty across the business community about Obama’s job-killing tax, spending and regulatory agenda that has prevented businesses from expanding and hiring more workers and reinvesting an estimated $1.8 trillion in reserve funds.

3. Tax uncertainty: No uncertainty is more paralyzing than the administration’s plan to allow President Bush’s 2001 and 2003 top tax cuts on dividends, capital gains and upper incomes to expire at the end of this year, raising them at a time when the economy and businesses are still struggling in a weak economic environment.

4. Tax impact: Private investment is the life blood of a dynamic and growing economy and the wellspring of all new jobs. If Obama goes through with his plan to let the Bush tax cuts expire, small business, family-owned enterprises, working families, investors and retirees will be hit by very large tax hikes that will weaken capital reinvestment and kill job creation.

5. Government spending: The more money that government takes from the economy to feed an insatiable spending binge, the less there is in the private sector to create new jobs.

6. Obamacare impact: Obamacare’s job killing impact on businesses large and small has been swift and undiscriminating. Soon after Obama signed the bill, major corporations were forced to take billions of dollars in new charges on their profit line to cover the increased cost of the new law. Major firms like Boeing, Caterpillar, John Deere & Co. and Illinois Tool Works, among others saw their tax deductions for companies offering drug benefits had been cut to pay for the plan’s nearly $1 trillion cost.

7. Financial regulation bill: This sweeping government regulation legislation will raise costs throughout the entire banking and financial regulation industry. That will mean higher costs for consumers and in turn force the industry to prune payrolls or other cost-cutting moves to bolster their bottom line earnings.

8. Energy cap-and-trade taxes: The so-called climate-change tax bill that Democrats passed in the House, and has been stalled in the Senate, was one of the biggest economic uncertainties threatening economic growth and job formation. It would impose sharply higher, job-killing energy costs across the nation’s entire energy industry, hurting producers, businesses and manufacturers, and consumers. U.S. businesses, to avoid the tax, would have to move plants elsewhere to avoid the tax, moving jobs out of the country.

9. Economic restructuring: One of the big reasons for slower job growth stems from our economy’s ability to boost productivity with fewer workers through increased technology, mechanization and other production innovations. Faster economic growth would increase hiring in all of business sectors and new business formation would lift our economy to a much higher employment rate. Lower business tax rates, faster depreciation of capital purchases for new equipment, zeroing out capital gains and dividend tax rates to unlock new capital investment for start-up companies would spark an explosion in new firms and hiring.

10. Minimum wage: No government initiative has killed more entry-level jobs than the higher minimum wage. Congress pushed up the federal minimum wage in the midst of a severe recession, from $6.55 in 2008 to $7.25 in 2009. Small businesses struggling to survive in the downturn were hurt most and quickly cut their payrolls. Unemployment shot way up for younger workers, especially among blacks, Hispanics and other unskilled minorities. Almost half of blacks between 16 and 34 are jobless, up 13% since March 2008.

Khavari’s Plan Is Florida’s Recovery, And Yours

Only 1 candidate for FL governor has a real economic plan for over 1,000,000 new jobs

Alex Sink and Rick Scott get most of the media attention. But there is an Independent candidate on the November ballot who is a respected economist and author of nine books: Farid Khavari.

Sink and Scott say they can create jobs by lowering taxes on business–but this has never worked before. Khavari will create over 1,000,000 private sector jobs without subsidies or “stimulus” plans.

The Khavari Economic Plan includes creation of a bank owned by all Floridians. 2% fixed-rate, 15-year mortgages (new and refinance) will earn billions for the state while reducing costs of home ownership by more than half. Housing prices will stabilize and there will never be another bubble. Our children will be able to afford homes, too. Combined with low-cost financing for business, energy, and 6% credit cards, Floridians will save many billions per year, while creating over 1,000,000 new jobs. Khavari’s plan will stop foreclosures and put people back in their homes. State and local budgets will balance overnight without new taxes. Florida will be recession-proof forever. This is common sense economics, from a common sense economist. Khavari’s plan has received national acclaim and candidates in other states have adopted it. Florida needs the Khavari Economic Plan.

Sink, a multi-millionaire retired banker and current Chief Financial Officer of Florida, has done nothing to create jobs and allowed the State Board of Administration to lose billions in phony investments. Scott made over $200,000,000 as CEO of a health-care company. Aren’t people like that part of the problem? Khavari has the solution.

Find out more at www.khavariforgovernor.com. Vote to save Florida’s economy, before it’s too late. Vote Khavari.

Privatizing Citizens Is Wrong

Let Floridians save 30% while the state earns billions!

Rick Scott’s proposal to privatize Citizens Property Insurance Corp. is simply a bad idea. It would guarantee increased rates. There is a much better way to fix Citizens. Citizens is a mess with potentially huge exposure. That can be remedied, with 30% savings for all Floridians while the state treasury can earn billions per year. You don’t need to be an economist to understand this. It is just common sense.

Citizens is in trouble because it guarantees private insurers’ profits, and foists all of the risk onto Florida taxpayers. This is an obvious recipe for disaster. Citizens covers the riskiest 22% of Florida homes, nicely protecting the private insurers at our expense. Private insurers exploit Floridians worse each year. State Farm raised rates 14.7% and dumped another 125,000 policyholders this year. Was there a hurricane I missed?

Citizens should offer all homeowners in Florida coverage identical to what they have now from private insurers, at a 30% discount. Just bring your policy to an agent and save 30% by switching to Citizens.

Adding the “safest” 78% of Florida homes to risk pool would dilute Citizens’ risk to the lowest in the nation. Then Citizens could reduce rates by 30% to its existing customers, too. Even the worst hurricanes affect only a small percentage of Florida’s 8 million homes.

Six million new customers, saving only $500 per year, is $3 billion per year. That would generate at least $25 billion per year of economic activity in Florida, creating 30,000 jobs. The state could earn $5 billion per year in profit. Citizens would no longer be just the largest property insurer in Florida, but the safest and most profitable in America.

$25 billion in economic activity this year will make $50 billion next year, and another 30,000 jobs. And so on.

No need to argue about “socialism.” The state is already in the insurance business, with no realistic way out. The question is, shall we make some money at it and save Floridians billions per year? Or encourage more private insurers to suck even more blood out of our families and our state’s economy?

When everyone works for the state, we call it socialism. What do we call it when the state works for everyone? Common sense.

Sincerely,

Farid A. Khavari, Ph.D.

Economist and Candidate for Florida Governor (Independent, 2010)

The Gamblers; Crist, Sink, And McCollum

It may be a difficult read, but if you really want to know who is responsible for losing billions of dollars of Florida’s pension funds, you must read this. Next thing is, don’t reward them with your vote.

For governor of the State of Florida, stick with Dr. Farid Khavari. An economist who not only knows better on how to manage resources, but he is the only one with a sound economic plan to put Florida back on the path to prosperity and to replace the money lost by Sink, McCollum, and Crist.

Related Links: Risk won; taxpayers lost – St. Petersburg TimesKhavari for Governor